Typical October change vs September, beyond the calendar effect. Red wine rose and rosé fell in all 10 years.
- Rhône ▲ +16%
- Nebbiolo ▲ +16%
- Manhattan ▲ +14%
- Red wine ▲ +11%
- Pinot Noir ▲ +11%
- Rosé ▼ −34%
- Spritz ▼ −23%
- Rum & tropical ▼ −22%
- Margarita ▼ −9%
Rosé has fallen in October every year we’ve measured, by a median 34%. Red wine has risen every year, and Nebbiolo (+16%), Pinot Noir (+11%) and the Rhône (+16%) lead. Spritzes and margaritas fade; Manhattans and bourbon climb. This October also has five Fridays and five Saturdays, worth about +7% in beverage revenue on its own. Stock reds for five big weekends, swap a rosé glass for a Syrah, and don’t count on Halloween Saturday: it runs at about 70% of a normal Saturday.
Tested on seven past Octobers using only earlier years: the method called red wine within 2%.
October is when food changes: braises, mushrooms, game, truffles, root vegetables. The wine follows the plate. Nebbiolo, Syrah and Pinot Noir are the grapes made for that food, and Piemonte and the Rhône are their homes. Spritzes, margaritas and rosé are weather drinks, and the weather is gone. Brown spirits and stirred classics (Manhattan, Old Fashioned) are the bar’s version of a fireplace. And more weekend nights mean more tables that order bottles.
- Wine list: deepen Nebbiolo (Barolo, Barbaresco, Langhe), Northern and Southern Rhône, and Pinot Noir by the bottle. Make sure you have a red Burgundy ladder from entry to reserve.
- By the glass: swap a rosé pour for a Syrah or Nebbiolo. Keep one serious rosé for food.
- Bar: retire the spritz and tropical slots, and add a Manhattan riff and a bourbon or rye feature.
- Staffing and stock: plan for five Friday-Saturday weekends. Order reds for them, not for September’s pace.
- Halloween Saturday: staff lighter than a normal Saturday, and treat it as a promotion night, not a sure thing.