Report card: last month’s call
- Beverage revenue: projected +10.8%, actual +12.4% ✓
- Wine: projected +13.6%, actual +13.3% ✓
- Martini: projected +13.2%, actual +13.2% ✓
- Old Fashioned: projected +15.1%, actual +16.8% ✓
- Bourbon: projected +18.4%, actual +16.8% ✓
- Rosé: projected −29%, actual −10% ✓
- Margarita: projected −3%, actual +2% ✗
Projections include the calendar effect. Ticks mark the right direction. The big categories landed within two points; rosé fell as called, but by a third of the size.
November vs October, typical change beyond the calendar:
- Espresso martini ▲ +12%
- Manhattan ▲ +10%
- Rye ▲ +8%
- Bourbon ▲ +5%
- Rosé ▼ −29%
- Spritz ▼ −14%
- Beer ▼ −11%
- Margarita ▼ −9%
Median of 10 Novembers (2014–2025, excluding 2020–21). Rosé, beer and margaritas fell in all 10; bourbon rose in all 10.
- 4 + 4 Fridays and Saturdays in November (October had 5 + 5)
- −7.6% beverage revenue from the calendar alone
- ~78% Thanksgiving Eve vs a normal Wednesday
Plan ahead: December
December beats October in all 10 years. Sparkling wine climbs about 32% and Champagne 40%; Espresso Martinis (+40%) and bourbon (+36%) lead the bar. New Year’s Eve falls on a Thursday and has run at about 1.5× a normal night. Lock in December’s Champagne allocations this month.
November is a quieter month on paper: one fewer weekend and an extra Sunday and Monday. Add the usual seasonal dip and a typical restaurant sells about 10% less beverage than in October. The mix keeps darkening. Brown spirits and stirred drinks climb; anything that tastes of summer keeps falling. And Thanksgiving Eve, the night everyone stocks up for, has run at about 78% of a normal Wednesday over ten years. It’s a bar night, not a wine night: spirits jump from about 25% to 31% of beverage sales.
- Order to November’s demand, not October’s: about 10% lower overall.
- Give rye and bourbon a feature, and make the Espresso Martini fast to build.
- Staff Thanksgiving Eve for the bar, not the floor.