As thick blankets of chill fog roll in, plunging our City by the Bay into the winter of our discontent, our collective minds drift to memories of the summer past and the volumes of Rosé we downed on hot afternoons. One topic we hotly debated was whether Rosé was a fitting quaff only for idyllic summer afternoons or whether it was appropriate year-round. Of course–being the inveterate wine drinkers that we are–it was inevitable that we concluded that a day without Rosé is a day half-lived. But what does the rest of the world think?
We turned to the BinWise Analytics Platform to provide some greater insight into Rosé trends:
Are there seasonal patterns to wine consumption? Is Rosé a year-round drink?
The Methodology: We first took a look at on-premise wine sales statistics for the last year and a half, and broke it down by wine-type (Red, White, Sparkling, Rosé, etc), examining total sales quantity and value sold for each type per month over that timeframe. To get a view of sales performance of a specific category we accounted for data anomalies–sales increases or losses resulting from customer growth or churn, for example–by considering the sales value of a specific type within the context of a percentage of total wine sales.
As shown in the first graph, Rosé sales fluctuate dramatically on clear, periodic cycles that mirror the course of the seasons—sales trend upwards in the summer, peaking in June/July, and fall to a nadir in January. Average % of total sales during the colder months hovered at about 2% of the product mix, while in summer months, this average jumped to 10%+. While all wine types showed some level of seasonal fluctuation as a percentage of sales [more on that in a future blog post], Rosé showed a much more massive shift in sales between colder and balmier months.
|Pro Tip for aspiring sommeliers: run 2 or more Rosés by the glass (and more by the bottle) during the summer months to capture increased demand. Overall demand also appears to be rising year on year, independent of season so get ahead of the game and commit to running Rosé year round.|
So it’s clear that restaurant guests order literally a ton more Rosé in July than they do in December (actually about 10.9375 tons more, to be exact, for just the restaurants whose data we tracked).
Are there other behavioral or market components of Rosé consumption that change by season?
Digging deeper into the data reveals that part of the fluctuation in sales value % stems from not just consumption patterns, but in seasonal pricing as well. Rosé prices fluctuates over a broad frequency on a seasonal basis seeing as much as a 15% jump in price between winter and summer.
Looking in on an item level, product mixes differ when comparing December to January, so the price fluctuations are less about restaurants raising or lowering prices on a specific basket of items–rather it seems that sommeliers have discovered that customers are willing to trade up for more expensive Rosé during the hot months. This distinct uptick in price also helps to push up Rosé sales value as a % of total sales during the summer months.
|Pro Tip for Rosé drinkers: bargains can be found in the winter, that is, if you can find a spot serving Rosé in January.|
There were two other factors that jumped out at us in considering this subset of data. Firstly, do other wine types show price fluctuations in the way Rosé varies by season? Secondly, the price trend for Rosé seems on a fairly steep upward slope–is this price increase in line with general wine price trends or is Rosé showing a unique growth pattern?
Taking Red wines as a point of comparison, there do seem to be some fluctuations in purchasing patterns over the course of the year, with customer preferences peaking for Red wines in the cold winter months–we certainly love a lusty Châteauneuf-du-Pape to warm our palates and hearts when the temperature dips.
From a pricing standpoint however, Red wines don’t show quite the statistically meaningful seasonal variation in price the way Rosé clearly does.
Prices by the glass are clearly creeping up across the board however, with wines of all types showing a statistically meaningful increase over the past 18 months which seems to be outpacing the Consumer Price Index by a fair margin. The percent increase for Rosé is more dramatic than Red wine, which would seem to indicate that the market for high quality, premium Rosé is clearly continuing to develop in the US.
|Pro Tip for Rosé producers and distributors: demand is growing and there’s some price inelasticity to be taken advantage of. More expensive Rosés fare better in the summer so time sales & marketing activities accordingly.|
We will be publishing monthly data-driven trend pieces on our Blog, utilizing analysis culled from the BinWise Analytics Platform. To stay abreast of these trends and data insights of wines sold on-premise, please subscribe to our blog.
If you have interest in more in-depth white-papers regarding on-premise sales trends, please click here to sign-up for data from the BinWise Analytics Platform.
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